Sic Transit Trump--What’s Next?

Image by Joanie Lemercier, Instagram

This article by Global Geneva's America's editor, William Dowell, is shared with his personal column on Substack: A Different Place.

Donald Trump’s political career has defied gravity so often that even the most experienced political experts were hesitant to predict the blue avalanche that has just buried the rest of his term as president.

The election is over, and so, hopefully, is the reality distortion field that Trump imposed on a highly polarized nation. The midterm election was not just about the high cost of living; it was also about values and what it means to be an American.

Now that it is over, it’s important to remember that nearly two months remain before the new Congress becomes active in January. So, what happens next? Where do the Democrats go from here?

An Assessment of the Damage

A model that Democrats might follow is the one that disaster relief experts employ after a major catastrophe such as a tsunami or an earthquake. The first step is to make a comprehensive assessment of the damage.

The next is to prioritize the response, in other words, to determine which problems need to be handled immediately and which can be handled later. In disasters, you also need to identify who needs immediate help, and who can wait.

Only when these questions have been answered is it possible to develop a coherent plan. Skip any of the steps, and you risk squandering limited resources. The most important of these is time.

Impeachment: Not necessarily a Priority

Before the election, several reporters asked candidates whether they would be in favor of impeaching Trump again. Most ducked the question. Impeachment might eventually prove necessary, but from a Democratic perspective, it is hardly a top priority, and it could prove counterproductive, especially if it inadvertently gave J.D. Vance a jump start in the race for the 2028 presidential election. More importantly, it would further alienate non-MAGA Republicans whose future help might be useful.

A more important order of business is for newly elected Democrats to caucus among themselves and better understand each other. It’s a big country, and different states have different sensitivities, priorities, and needs.

The first step in mediation is to identify which points everyone can already agree on. After that, it is easier to identify the issues that require negotiation. The process became highly developed in strategic arms limitation talks during the Cold War.

High Food Costs, Tariffs...Too Many Problems

The problem at the moment is that Trump has created so many problems that it is difficult to know where to start. High food and fuel costs are near the top of the list of items that most bother voters.

Damage to business and agriculture from Trump’s tariffs is a close second. Trump had hoped that the tariffs would compensate for the loss in revenue due to the tax breaks in his Big Beautiful Bill. It didn’t work out that way, and the National Debt soared to more than $40 trillion.

To compensate, Trump cut financing for health care and education. As a result, hundreds of thousands of Americans can no longer afford health insurance. The situation is likely to become even more critical as government subsidies to health plans expire, adding to the damage caused by cuts to Medicaid.

Reducing government financing for research, education, climate control, and the elimination of much of the Civil Service will also need to be dealt with. Democrats need to be clear among themselves about which problems they want to take on first.

If they emerge from the next two years without having accomplished anything significant, they risk being swept away in the 2028 presidential election. If they don’t even try, it will be far worse. That’s why the first priority should be to resolve differences among themselves and figure out what they can agree on. They have two months until the new Congress declares itself open for business. It’s best to get started now.

Trump has promised to turn himself into “President Veto.” The strategy could work against him. If he vetoes legislation that is popular, it will further enhance Democrats and reduce Republican chances for the 2028 election.

The main weakness underlying Trump’s strategy until now is that his policies are based on presidential directives that can easily be reversed. Trump had a majority in Congress, and he could easily have asked it to rubber-stamp his initiatives. He didn’t bother. Now that he is facing a Democratic majority, it’s too late to correct his mistake.

The Problem of Iran

The single biggest problem the country faces at the moment is the stranglehold that Iran exercises by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The Republican defeat in the midterm election could make it possible for Trump to reopen negotiations with Iran, but Trump’s ego will probably rule out that option.

Jared Kushner, whom Trump has used as his major negotiator, has had so many personal financial deals with Mohammed bin Zayed, the president of the United Arab Emirates, which sees Iran as a mortal enemy , that it is difficult to see how he can be an effective negotiator.

The world may have to wait for a deal on Hormuz until either Trump resigns or ends his term in office. That is another argument for encouraging Trump to step down. A new U.S. administration would be free to negotiate an end to the blockade. That may be the only way to end a costly stalemate.

An easier target for Democrats in Congress is Trump’s tariffs. The Constitution guarantees Congress - not the president, except under emergency conditions - the right to set tariffs. Republicans ignored that part of the Constitution. Democrats can use it to set at least that part of the economy back in balance.

Massive Corruption: A Key Issue

The other thing that Democrats in Congress can do is to begin shining a spotlight on the massive corruption that has characterized Trump’s second term in office.

At the top of the list for investigation is Elon Musk, who suddenly shut down Ukraine’s defenses by stopping, then slowing, access to his Starlink satellite communications network. By suddenly rendering the Ukrainians defenseless against Russian drone and missile attacks, Musk demonstrated the danger inherent in letting a private citizen have total control over a technology that is vital to defense.

If Musk can do it to Ukraine, he can just as easily do it to the U.S. His controlling ownership of SpaceX, XAI, and Tesla puts too much power in the hands of a single private citizen. The fact that he put $400 million into financing Republican campaigns during the midterms, and then used his social media platform X to broadcast self-serving explanations for his conduct, shows that he is not above trying to manipulate U.S. politics.

He may boast that he is worth more than $1 trillion, but much of that money came from U.S. government contracts. It is essentially the money spent by U.S. taxpayers. Trump’s administration made itself part of the deal. Democrats may need to look into what is really going on behind the scenes.

The bottom line is that the new Democrats in Congress will have their hands full next January. They will need to keep their eyes on the prize. In his Discourse on Livy, Machiavelli noted that for a republic to survive, it must frequently be brought back to its original principles. In that context, a crisis can be a powerful catalyst for renewal.

That is precisely what the midterm elections may have accomplished. The next two years will determine whether it was worth it.

Foreign correspondent and author William Dowell is Global Geneva's America’s editor based in Philadelphia. Over the past decades, he has covered much of the globe, including Iran, for TIME, ABC News and other news organizations.